Most of us wouldn’t care for what daily life would really be like if civilization did truly collapse. It would be very primitive, and it wouldn’t be long before something would get you – maybe something as insignificant as cutting yourself on a tool; it becomes infected and without antibiotics (would have to be the right antibiotic for the bug, and enough of it to treat the infection) you get gangrene or septicemia, etc. and that’s it.
But I do think there are sensible precautions that people can take so they can survive the kinds of temporary disruptions that we actually do know are fairly likely to happen because they happen with some regularity. Just because we don’t know exactly when they’ll happen shouldn’t be a reason to ignore them.
Here on the west coast, we know that there’s going to be a major earthquake – perhaps of catastrophic magnitude. Some “experts” say within 5-10 years, others say within 15-20 years.
But what we tend to misunderstand is that, in fact, all of these predictions are actually telling us that it *could* happenthis year. The key word is “within”, and the “outside” prediction – whether it’s within 5 years, 10 years or 20 years – actually doesn’t have any relevance at all. It could come at any time.
“Within 5 years”: 0-1-2-3-4-5
“Within 10 years”: 0-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10
People tend to take false comfort from the longer-term predictions, and in that sense they misunderstand what’s being said. “Within 15-20 years” does NOT mean “between years 15 and 20”. It means that the person making the prediction is not willing to narrow the possible range down any closer than 15 years. It means, literally, that it could happen any time but probably within 20 years.
We need to learn how to think about the data that we’re given.
(Written by Brian T. and published with express permission by SobertGummer.com)